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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-28 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 31.4, -80.3 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-08-28 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 281450 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 4(28) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) X(24) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 3(34) 1(35) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 7( 7) 24(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 13(13) 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 15(15) 10(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 14(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 16(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FLORENCE SC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 2 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 4
2017-08-28 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281450 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 80.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina coast from Surf City to Duck including the Albermale and Pamlico Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Surf City to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the area of minimum pressure associated with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track the system will move over or near the coast of South Carolina today and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance will likely become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Tuesday. An Air Force plane will check the disturbance later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later today. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-08-28 16:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281450 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM SURF CITY TO DUCK INCLUDING THE ALBERMALE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF SURF CITY TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 80.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 80.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 80.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.4N 79.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.5N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 42.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 150SW 125NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 240SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 50.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 80.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-28 13:46:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 11:46:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 09:33:20 GMT
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