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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-08-29 10:59:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 290859 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 12(32) X(32) X(32) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 4 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 12 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ROCKY MT NC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 42 14(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE HATTERAS 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 30 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEW RIVER NC 34 46 X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MOREHEAD CITY 34 40 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SURF CITY NC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) LITTLE RIVER 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-08-29 10:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290858 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 78.5W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 78.5W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.4N 76.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.0N 71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 39.5N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 270SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 41.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 330SE 270SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 44.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 300SE 330SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 50.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 55.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.5N 78.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-29 07:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 05:53:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 03:34:09 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-29 07:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 the center of Ten was located near 32.5, -79.5 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 6A
2017-08-29 07:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290549 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...DISTURBANCE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 79.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 79.5 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or over the coast of South Carolina this morning and across the North Carolina Outer Banks later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength through this morning and the chances for the system to become a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected over portions of the Carolinas during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours... medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area this afternoon and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later this morning. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia coasts during the next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible today along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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