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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-11-20 03:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 200236 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-11-20 03:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200235 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 60.6W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 60.6W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 60.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.9N 61.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.4N 59.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.2N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 60.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-11-19 21:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 192035 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 The low-level center of Sebastien has been exposed over the past several hours, as northwesterly shear of 20-30 kt has been pushing any deep convection off to the southeastern portion of the cyclone. The initial advisory intensity is being held at 40 kt and is based on an earlier scatterometer pass that sampled maximum winds of 39 kt. The initial motion is 305/10 kt. Sebastien is forecast to be steered to the northwest around a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic through tonight. By Wednesday, the cyclone should turn to the north, and then accelerate northeastward Wednesday night as the cyclone gets caught up in the flow between the retreating ridge and ahead of an approaching cold front. The model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track keeps the cyclone over open waters for the duration of its existence. The shear is not expected to decrease much over the next couple days while the system remains a tropical cyclone. There may be an opportunity for some strengthening Wednesday and Wednesday night as Sebastien turns to the north and northeast and resides under some favorable upper-level diffluence. By 48 hours, Sebastien is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone just ahead of an approaching cold front. Therefore, additional strengthening indicated beyond 36 hours should be due to baroclinic processes. The cyclone should then become absorbed by the cold front by late this week. The official forecast was adjusted slightly higher from the previous one at 36 and 48 hours to reflect the anticipated intensification of the system as it begins its extratropical transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 21.3N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 22.6N 61.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 24.2N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 26.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-19 21:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Nov 2019 20:35:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Nov 2019 20:35:33 GMT
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sebastien
Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-11-19 21:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 19 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 192034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC TUE NOV 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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