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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-20 15:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 14:46:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 14:46:11 GMT
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sebastien
Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-11-20 15:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 201445 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO/MELLO
Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-20 15:44:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN MAINTAINS INTENSITY... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH SOON... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of Sebastien was located near 21.1, -61.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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sebastien
Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 5
2019-11-20 15:44:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201444 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 ...SEBASTIEN MAINTAINS INTENSITY... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 61.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 61.7 West. Sebastien is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the north is expected later today. A turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sebastien is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days and be absorbed by a cold front on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto/Mello
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-11-20 15:44:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 201444 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 61.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 61.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.0N 61.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.7N 60.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 26.3N 57.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.8N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 61.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/MELLO
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