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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-19 21:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Nov 19 the center of Sebastien was located near 20.6, -59.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 2
2019-11-19 21:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 ...SEBASTIEN CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 59.7W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 59.7 West. Sebastien is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the north is expected on Wednesday followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sebastien is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days and will then be absorbed by a cold front late this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 2
2019-11-19 21:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 19 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 192033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC TUE NOV 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 59.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 59.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 59.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.3N 60.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.6N 61.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 24.2N 61.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 26.0N 58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 59.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-11-19 16:10:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191501 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Tue Nov 19 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that the overall cloud pattern of the disturbance has improved since yesterday, and that the low has become well-defined. In addition, a late-arriving ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed 35-38 kt winds extending 90 n mi from the center in the northeastern quadrant. This pass also revealed that the low was nearly closed at the surface, and since the scatterometer may not have resolved the small scale of the low-level center it is likely that the surface low is indeed closed. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Sebastian with an initial advisory intensity of 40 kt. Sebastien will not be in an ideal environment for significant intensification, as it will be battling dry air to its west and about 20 kt of northwesterly shear for the next couple of days. However, due to the presence of an upper trough to the west of the system, a diffluent environment aloft may aid in some slight strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, the storm will begin to interact with an approaching cold front, and some additional intensification may occur due to baroclinic processes. The cyclone is then expected to become absorbed by the front in about 48 hours. The various intensity guidance solutions are in decent agreement, and the official forecast is near the mean of these forecasts. There are some timing variations among the models on when the cyclone will become absorbed by the front, and it is possible that the storm could be absorbed sooner than indicated. The initial motion is 330/07 kt. Sebastien will be steered to the northwest in the near term around a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic. By Wednesday, the cyclone should turn north, and then should accelerate northeastward by Wednesday night as the cyclone gets caught up in the flow between the retreating ridge and ahead of the approaching cold front. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and on the official forecast track the cyclone will remain over open waters for the duration of its existence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 20.1N 58.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.0N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 22.2N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 23.5N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 25.5N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-11-19 16:04:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 19 2019 561 WTNT25 KNHC 191504 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC TUE NOV 19 2019 CORRECTED GUSTS AT INITIAL TIME THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 58.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 58.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 58.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 59.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.2N 60.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.5N 58.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 58.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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