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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2019-11-20 21:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 202036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)

2019-11-20 21:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SEBASTIEN MAKES ITS NORTHWARD TURN... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of Sebastien was located near 21.7, -61.5 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 6

2019-11-20 21:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 202036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 ...SEBASTIEN MAKES ITS NORTHWARD TURN... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 61.5W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 61.5 West. Sebastien is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sebastien is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days and be absorbed by a cold front on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 6

2019-11-20 21:35:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 202035 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 61.5W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 61.5W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.7N 61.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.2N 55.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N 51.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 61.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 5

2019-11-20 15:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201447 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 Sebastien continues to struggle with dry air and northwesterly shear, with satellite imagery showing an exposed low-level center to the west of the deep convection. The current structure of the storm should prevent significant intensification during the next 12 hours. After that time, Sebastien will begin to interact with a mid- to upper-level trough that will produce upper-level divergence over the cyclone. This will provide a window for Sebastien to intensify before making the transition to an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours. All available guidance intensifies the storm, and the dynamical models continue to strengthen it more than the statistical models. In fact, the mesoscale models unanimously make Sebastian a hurricane within 36 hours. However, these models are likely intensifying the cyclone too quickly over the next 12 hours, and therefore may have a slight high bias. The official forecast takes this into account and keeps the storm just below hurricane strength before extratropical transition by 48 hours, which is a blend of the ECMWF and GFS solutions. Sebastien appears to be approaching its westernmost point and a turn to the north should begin later today, followed by acceleration to the northeast starting tonight due to the influence of the approaching trough. The track guidance is in agreement on this overall scenario. The NHC forecast track is just slightly slower than the previous one in the first 24 hours, and is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 21.1N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 22.0N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 23.7N 60.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 26.3N 57.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 29.8N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Mello

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