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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-20 09:38:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 08:38:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Nov 2019 09:24:18 GMT
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sebastien
Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-11-20 09:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200837 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 AM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 Deep convection developed closer to the center of Sebastien around the time of the previous advisory, but northwesterly shear and dry air have caused it to wane within the past hour or two. A late arriving ASCAT-C overpass revealed peak winds a little above 40 kt. Given the typical undersampling of that instrument, the initial intensity has been raised to 45 kt. The shear and dry air are expected to keep Sebastien's intensity in check today, but by tonight the upper-level divergence is forecast to increase while the storm motion and shear vector line up. This is expected to allow for some strengthening and nearly all of the intensity guidance and global models predict deepening. The new intensity forecast is again similar to the previous advisory and lies between the lower statistical guidance and the more aggressive dynamical models. Sebastien appears to have turned northwestward with an initial motion of 305/7 kt. A turn to the north should occur later today, and then a northeastward motion is predicted to begin by Wednesday night as the storm is picked up by a deep layer trough moving eastward across the western Atlantic. The track guidance is in agreement on this overall scenario but there are some significant differences in how quickly Sebastien accelerates northeastward. The GFS, HWRF, and HMON show the storm recurving quickly ahead of the trough while the ECMWF is quite a bit slower. The NHC track is a little slower than the previous forecast, but remains close to the various consensus aids and the latest UKMET ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 21.0N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 21.7N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 23.2N 60.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 25.3N 58.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 28.7N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
2019-11-20 09:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SEBASTIEN A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of Sebastien was located near 21.0, -61.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 4
2019-11-20 09:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200836 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 AM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 ...SEBASTIEN A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 61.0W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 61.0 West. Sebastien is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the north-northwest and north is expected later today. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sebastien is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days and be absorbed by a cold front on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-11-20 09:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 200836 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0900 UTC WED NOV 20 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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