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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)

2019-11-21 03:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SEBASTIEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Nov 20 the center of Sebastien was located near 22.2, -61.5 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 7

2019-11-21 03:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210252 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 ...SEBASTIEN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 61.5W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 61.5 West. Sebastien is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is forecast overnight, with an increase in forecast speed during the day on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Sebastien could become a hurricane late Thursday or Friday before weakening this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 7

2019-11-21 03:51:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 210251 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 61.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 61.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.3N 60.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.5N 57.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.0N 53.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 37.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 61.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 6

2019-11-20 21:37:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 202037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 Sebastien has changed little in organization today, with northwesterly shear displacing the deep convection to the southeast of an exposed low-level center. An ASCAT-C overpass late this morning sampled peak winds of 41 kt, and so the initial advisory intensity will remain 45 kt due to the assumption of undersampling by the scatterometer. Sebastien made its anticipated turn to the north earlier today, and the current motion is now 360/05 kt. The cyclone should turn to the northeast tonight and begin to accelerate as it gets embedded in increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front and associated mid- to upper- level trough. The official forecast track is near the previous one through 24 hours, and a little slower and to the south of it beyond that time due to a shift in the model guidance. The approaching trough should provide a diffluent environment aloft over Sebastien beginning tonight and persisting until the system makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days. This is expected to result in some intensification over the next day or so. Once extratropical, the cyclone should gradually become absorbed into a frontal zone through the end of the week. The official forecast is changed little from the previous one, and is near the IVCN consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 21.7N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 22.7N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 24.5N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 27.2N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 30.0N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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