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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 8
2019-11-21 09:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 210831 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 AM AST Thu Nov 21 2019 ...SEBASTIEN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 61.2W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 61.2 West. Sebastien is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Sebastien could become a hurricane tonight or Friday before weakening this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 8
2019-11-21 09:31:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 210831 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0900 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 61.2W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 61.2W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 61.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 24.5N 59.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.6N 56.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.4N 52.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.4N 47.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 160SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.6N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 61.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-11-21 03:54:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 378 WTNT45 KNHC 210253 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Wed Nov 20 2019 Deep convection has intensified near and to the southeast of the center of Sebastien this evening, and a recent partial ASCAT pass suggests the center is still on the edge of the thunderstorms. Satellite intensity estimates have risen slightly, so the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the high side of the recent values. The storm continues to move slowly to the north tonight. Increasing deep-layer flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough should turn Sebastien northeastward overnight and cause the cyclone to further accelerate by late Thursday and Friday. The models aren't in great agreement on how quickly the storm will move to the northeast, however, with the model guidance having a stronger storm generally moving faster to the northeast. Since Sebastien isn't expected to get that intense, it makes physical sense to avoid the fastest solutions. Thus, the new forecast is slower than the last one, closer to the model consensus than the GFS-based guidance. The environment is forecast to become more conducive for strengthening during the next 24 hours as significant upper-level divergence increases near Sebastien. Combined with low or moderate shear and warm waters, these conditions should support further intensification, and the new NHC forecast now shows Sebastien as a hurricane for a short period of time. Notably, this forecast is still on the conservative side of the guidance, with all of the regional hurricane models showing Sebastien becoming a fairly potent hurricane in a day or two. This doesn't seem likely after examining the model initial structure of the HWRF/HMON models, which show a much more vertically aligned cyclone than Sebastien appears to be now, so the NHC forecast is only a bit higher than the last one. In a couple of days, the storm will be moving over cooler waters, with increasing shear and baroclinicity. That should facilitate Sebastien's transition to a non-tropical cyclone by the end of the work week, but note that the extratropical transition has been shifted back about a day due to the stronger-than-forecast cyclone likely staying a little more separate from an incoming cold front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 22.2N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 23.3N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 25.5N 57.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 28.0N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 31.0N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0000Z 37.0N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
2019-11-21 03:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2019 02:53:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Nov 2019 02:53:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-11-21 03:53:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 210252 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC THU NOV 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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