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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2018-10-23 04:49:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230249 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)

2018-10-23 04:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...VICENTE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 the center of Vicente was located near 16.4, -102.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 15

2018-10-23 04:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230248 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 ...VICENTE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 102.0W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 102.0 West. Vicente is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through landfall on Tuesday in southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to be a tropical depression at landfall on Tuesday, then rapidly weaken and dissipate late that day over the Sierra Madre mountains. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Tuesday over portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 15

2018-10-23 04:48:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230248 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0300 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 102.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 102.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 101.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.9N 103.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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