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Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
2018-10-22 16:46:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 14:46:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 15:21:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-10-22 16:45:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221445 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Satellite imagery and microwave data this morning are indicating that the early morning re-strengthening of Vicente has ended. The system appears elongated, with the low-level center becoming increasingly difficult to locate. Radar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico, does not suggest a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time. The averages of the subjective Dvorak analyses from SAB and TAFB support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which may be a little generous. Moderate northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the cyclone the next couple of days which should support ongoing steady weakening. The GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show the cyclone dissipating tonight, with some of the other global model guidance showing little change in intensity until landfall. Given the current disorganized appearance, a weakening trend appears to be the most realistic scenario, with Vicente forecast to weaken to a tropical depression before it makes landfall over southwestern Mexico in about 36 hours. Regardless of the forecast intensity, the primary hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding. Vicente appears to have begun a turn to the west-northwest, and the initial motion is now estimated to be 290/10 kt as the system begins to round the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of the ridge later today and Tuesday, a turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is expected. The latest NHC forecast track is similar, and just slightly to the right of the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Latto
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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-10-22 16:44:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 221444 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 18(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-22 16:44:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VICENTE LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 the center of Vicente was located near 14.9, -100.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 13
2018-10-22 16:44:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 ...VICENTE LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 100.8W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 100.8 West. Vicente is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn to the northwest is expected today followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight or Tuesday. The cyclone's circulation is expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of Mexico by Wednesday. Vicente is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Latto
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