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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-10-22 16:44:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 221444 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.8W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.8W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO
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Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
2018-10-22 10:37:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 08:37:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 09:21:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-10-22 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220836 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Vicente's cloud pattern has become better organized during the past several hours. A burst of deep convection has developed near the surface center, and a developing curved band with associated cold cloud tops of -80C is wrapping around nearly 70 percent of the cyclone's circulation. A SATCON analysis, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier 0325 UTC ISRO ScatSAT-1 overpass support an initial intensity increase to 40 kt for this advisory. Despite this temporary strengthening interlude, modest northeasterly shear as indicated by the statistical intensity aids and the UW-CIMSS shear product should induce weakening soon. In fact, most of the large-scale models agree with dissipation in 36 hours, or show the cyclone reaching the Mexico coastline around the 48-hour period as a depression. Although the majority of the models support dissipation over water, the NHC forecast will reflect landfall as a tropical depression for continuity purposes. Regardless of the forecast intensity scenarios, the primary hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/9 kt, within southeast to easterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward over southern Mexico from the central Gulf of Mexico. Vicente is expected to round the southwestern to western periphery of the aforementioned ridge during the next 36 hours, or prior to dissipation. The track forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory, and is based on a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.1N 99.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 14.8N 100.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 16.1N 102.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 17.7N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 19.5N 104.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-22 10:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 the center of Vicente was located near 14.1, -99.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 12
2018-10-22 10:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018 ...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 99.7W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 99.7 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward turn is expected later this morning, followed by a turn toward the northwest by late tonight. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Afterward, weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight or Tuesday. The cyclone's circulation is expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of Mexico by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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