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Hurricane ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-01-14 21:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142035 TCMAT1 HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 2100 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA IN THE EASTERN AZORES HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 27.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 27.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 28.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.4N 27.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 41.8N 27.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 180SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 49.5N 29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 240SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...420NE 480SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 56.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...240NE 240SE 100SW 240NW. 34 KT...420NE 300SE 180SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 27.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory Number 5
2016-01-14 21:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 27.8W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 27.8 West. Alex is moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected by Friday followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the Azores Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, and Alex is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over portions of the Azores tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by early Friday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane ALEX Graphics
2016-01-14 18:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 17:42:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 15:04:49 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane ALEX (AT1/AL012016)
2016-01-14 18:41:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALEX HEADED FOR THE AZORES... As of 2:00 PM AST Thu Jan 14 the center of ALEX was located near 32.6, -28.0 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory Number 4A
2016-01-14 18:41:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141741 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 200 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 ...ALEX HEADED FOR THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 28.0W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 28.0 West. Alex is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the Azores Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over portions of the Azores tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by early Friday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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