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Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory Number 6
2016-01-15 03:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150242 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 ...ALEX WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE AZORES... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY EARLY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 27.6W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 27.6 West. Alex is moving toward the north near 22 mph (35 km/h). A northward motion and a faster forward speed are expected tonight and Friday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the Azores Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so. However, Alex is likely to lose its tropical characteristics on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Wind gusts to tropical storm force have been reported in the eastern Azores during the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over portions of the Azores during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by early Friday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-01-15 03:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 150242 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 0300 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONTA DELGADA 34 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) PONTA DELGADA 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-01-15 03:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150242 TCMAT1 HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 0300 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA IN THE EASTERN AZORES HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 27.6W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 27.6W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 27.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 38.4N 27.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.0N 29.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 180SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 52.7N 32.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 480SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 59.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...240NE 180SE 0SW 240NW. 34 KT...420NE 300SE 180SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 27.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane ALEX Graphics
2016-01-15 00:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 23:46:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 21:03:47 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane ALEX (AT1/AL012016)
2016-01-15 00:44:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALEX MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AZORES... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY EARLY FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Jan 14 the center of ALEX was located near 33.9, -27.8 with movement N at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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