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Summary for Hurricane ALEX (AT1/AL012016)
2016-01-15 06:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES LATER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Jan 15 the center of ALEX was located near 35.5, -27.3 with movement N at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory Number 6A
2016-01-15 06:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150557 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 200 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 27.3W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF TERCEIRA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 27.3 West. Alex is moving toward the north near 22 mph (35 km/h). A northward motion and a faster forward speed are expected this morning and afternoon, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the Azores this morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so. However, Alex is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by tonight while it moves over colder water. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Wind gusts to tropical storm force have been reported over portions the eastern and central Azores during the past few hours. A wind gust to 51 mph (81 km/h) has been reported at the Santa Maria Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds will continue to spread across all of the eastern and central Azores this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores later this morning. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through today, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane ALEX Graphics
2016-01-15 04:03:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 02:43:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 03:03:46 GMT
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Hurricane ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-01-15 03:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150243 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that the convective structure of Alex has decayed during the past 6 hours, with the eyewall breaking open and the banding dissipating in the southeastern semicircle. Based on this, the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt. The hurricane is moving over colder sea surface temperatures of less than 20C. However, the cyclone should begin extratropical transition in the next few hours, and the global models suggest there will be enough baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds through and after the transition despite the cold water. Based on this and input from the Ocean Prediction Center, the new intensity forecast shows little change in strength until Alex is absorbed by a large extratropical low in about 72 hours. The initial motion is 010/19. There are no changes to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory and only minor tweaks to the forecast track. Alex continues to be steered by the flow of a shortwave mid-tropospheric trough that is rotating around the developing large baroclinic low to its west and northwest. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn gradually to the left with increasing forward speed over the next couple of days. The dynamical track guidance models remain in excellent agreement for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and the official forecast is near the model consensus. Alex's wind field is likely to expand as it undergoes extratropical transition. The wind radii forecasts are based primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 34.7N 27.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 38.4N 27.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 45.0N 29.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 16/1200Z 52.7N 32.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/0000Z 59.0N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane ALEX (AT1/AL012016)
2016-01-15 03:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALEX WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE AZORES... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES BY EARLY FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Jan 14 the center of ALEX was located near 34.7, -27.6 with movement N at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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