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Hurricane ALEX Graphics
2016-01-14 15:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 14:35:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 14:50:47 GMT
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Hurricane ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-01-14 15:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141434 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016 Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane. A distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric mass of deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level trough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over the center - indicative of a tropical transition. It is very unusual to have a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but the upper-tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 deg C, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean. The resulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to the tropical transition and intensification of Alex. With these changes, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for most of the Azores islands. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt in accordance with the analyzed Dvorak T-number of 4.5. Only slight additional intensification seems possible since the system will be passing over even colder waters during the next day or two. In 36 hours, the global models suggest that the cyclone will become extratropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure area at high latitude. The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to lose its identity after 48 hours. The initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 kt. Alex is being steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotating around a larger trough to the northwest. This should cause the cyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerate over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensus of the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks. Alex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since 1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of 1955. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 31.5N 28.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 34.3N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 38.9N 27.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 45.3N 28.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1200Z 53.0N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-01-14 15:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 141433 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1500 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PONTA DELGADA 34 5 74(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) PONTA DELGADA 50 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PONTA DELGADA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane ALEX (AT1/AL012016)
2016-01-14 15:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALEX BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Jan 14 the center of ALEX was located near 31.5, -28.4 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-01-14 15:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 141433 TCMAT1 HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1500 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA IN THE EASTERN AZORES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA IN THE EASTERN AZORES HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 28.4W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 140SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 28.4W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 28.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.3N 27.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 38.9N 27.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.3N 28.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...210NE 150SE 0SW 120NW. 34 KT...420NE 480SE 180SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 53.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...240NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. 34 KT...420NE 660SE 240SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 28.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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