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Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-01-15 21:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 152032 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 Geostationary and low-level microwave satellite images show the cloud pattern becoming elongated and taking on a comma, i.e. frontal, shape. Short-term model forecasts show significant thermal advection in the circulation, and this is also suggested by surface data. An earlier scatterometer pass showed that the system was losing its inner-core wind maximum, with the strongest winds well-removed to the northeast of the center. Therefore Alex has made the transition to an extratropical cyclone, and this will be the last advisory. Maximum winds are estimated to be just below hurricane strength, and the post-tropical cyclone could re-intensify slightly in the short term due to baroclinic energy sources. Within 48 hours, the global models generally agree on the system merging with another extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The cyclone has accelerated greatly during the day and is now moving slightly west of due north, or 350/35. The dynamical guidance shows the system rotating counterclockwise around a large gyre over the north Atlantic during the next day or so. This is also shown in the official forecast, which is based mainly on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml, and in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 43.0N 27.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 16/0600Z 49.2N 29.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1800Z 56.3N 36.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0600Z 56.5N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX (AT1/AL012016)
2016-01-15 21:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALEX BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Jan 15 the center of ALEX was located near 43.0, -27.8 with movement N at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX Public Advisory Number 9
2016-01-15 21:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 152032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 ...ALEX BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 27.8W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Alex has lost its tropical characteristics. At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 27.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 40 mph (65 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest and west with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next 36 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with another extratropical cyclone by Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 485 miles (780 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml, and in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-01-15 21:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 152032 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 2100 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PONTA DELGADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Post-Tropical Cyclone ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 9
2016-01-15 21:31:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 152031 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 2100 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 27.8W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......300NE 120SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......420NE 420SE 240SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 540SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 27.8W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 27.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 49.2N 29.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...300NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 56.3N 36.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 56.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...240NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 34 KT...420NE 180SE 60SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.0N 27.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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