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Tropical Storm ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-01-15 15:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151457 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 Surface observations, scatterometer, and geostationary satellite data indicate that Alex has weakened, and the current intensity estimate is 60 kt. Wind and pressure observations from Terceira along with the scatterometer data indicate that the center is tilted north-northeastward with height, indicative of some south-southwesterly vertical shear. The global models show significant thermal advection developing over the eastern portion of the circulation very soon, and observation from the western Azores show cold air advection. These factors indicate that Alex will likely become an extratropical cyclone later today. Some restrengthening due to baroclinic processes is possible in the short term, but the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with or become absorbed by another extratropical low within 48 hours. Alex continues to accelerate and is now moving about 360/24. A gradual turn to the northwest is expected as the system rotates around a broader cyclonic gyre over the northern Atlantic. The official forecast track is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance. The forecast points and wind radii are based mostly on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 39.3N 27.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 45.1N 28.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1200Z 52.7N 31.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0000Z 57.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ALEX Graphics
2016-01-15 15:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 14:55:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jan 2016 14:54:46 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ALEX (AT1/AL012016)
2016-01-15 15:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Jan 15 the center of ALEX was located near 39.3, -27.0 with movement N at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm ALEX Public Advisory Number 8
2016-01-15 15:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 ...ALEX WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.3N 27.0W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Azores Meteorological Service has discontinued the hurricane and tropical storm warning for the Azores. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Satellite and surface data indicate that Alex made landfall on the island of Terceira around 915 AM AST (1315 UTC) as a tropical storm with an intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h). At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 27.0 West. Alex is moving toward the north near 28 mph (44 km/h) and a turn toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Alex is expected to lose tropical characteristics later today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still possible over portions of the Azores for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Rainfall in association with Alex should diminish across the Azores this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Storm surge and waves should gradually diminish across the Azores today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-01-15 15:54:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 151454 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1500 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AZORES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......150NE 150SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......400NE 300SE 180SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 240SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 27.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.1N 28.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 52.7N 31.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 300SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW. 34 KT...420NE 60SE 60SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 27.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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