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Hurricane ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 7

2016-01-15 09:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150845 TCMAT1 HURRICANE ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 0900 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 CORRECTED 48-HR FORECAST POSITION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...AND TERCEIRA IN THE CENTRAL AZORES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA IN THE EASTERN AZORES HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 27.0W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 360SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 27.0W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 27.1W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 41.4N 27.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 48.7N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...240NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 300SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...300NE 0SE 0SW 300NW. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 180SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 56.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...240NE 0SE 0SW 240NW. 34 KT...360NE 0SE 180SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 27.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Hurricane ALEX (AT1/AL012016)

2016-01-15 09:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ALEX WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AZORES... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES LATER THIS MORNING... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Jan 15 the center of ALEX was located near 36.8, -27.0 with movement N at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory Number 7

2016-01-15 09:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016 ...ALEX WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AZORES... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 27.0W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF TERCEIRA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 27.0 West. Alex is moving toward the north near 23 mph (37 km/h). A northward motion and a faster forward speed are expected this morning and afternoon, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest tonight and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the central Azores this morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so. However, Alex will likely lose its tropical characteristics by this afternoon or tonight while it moves over colder waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Wind gusts to tropical storm force continue to be reported over portions the eastern and central Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds will continue to spread across all of the eastern and central Azores this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by late morning. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through today, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall should diminish across the Azores by late afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2016-01-15 09:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 150834 PWSAT1 HURRICANE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 0900 UTC FRI JAN 15 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PONTA DELGADA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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