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Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory Number 4
2016-01-14 15:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141433 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016 ...ALEX BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 28.4W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Azores Meteorological Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira in the central Azores A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel and Santa Maria in the eastern Azores For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alex was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 28.4 West. Alex is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Alex will move near or over portions of the Azores Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin over portions of the Azores tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Azores by early Friday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of the center of Alex. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical storm Alex: Is climate change to blame rare Jan hurricanes?
2016-01-14 13:26:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
Christian Science Monitor: A subtropical storm is surprising meteorologists as it forms early in January, nearly six months ahead of the typical tropical storm season. Subtropical storm Alex is building over the Atlantic Ocean and is gaining strength as it approaches the Azores Islands, a chain of nine major islands owned by Portugal. By Thursday morning, Alex had produced sustained winds of 70 mph. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June through November. The first named storm doesn't typically appear...
Subtropical Storm ALEX Graphics
2016-01-14 09:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 08:40:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 08:50:49 GMT
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Subtropical Storm ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-01-14 09:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140849 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016 Since the previous advisory, the convective structure of Alex has continued to improve with a 15-nmi clear eye now embedded within a solid cloud shield of tops colder than -50C, with a ring of cloud tops near -60C surrounding the eye in the northern semicircle. The intensity of Alex is difficult to ascertain due to its subtropical characteristics, and satellite intensity estimates range from ST3.5/55 kt from TAFB to a tropical T4.5/77 kt from SAB. NHC AODT intensity estimates range from T4.0/65 kt to T4.5/77 kt using a tropical pattern and various eye scenes. Since the overall cloud pattern of Alex has improved markedly since the earlier 50-kt ASCAT-B scatterometer wind data, and a clear and distinct eye feature is now evident, the intensity is being raised to 60 kt. Alex continues to gradually turn toward the left and the initial motion is now 020/16 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northward during the next 12 hours or so as it is steered by deep southerly flow between a large extratropical low centered over the northwest Atlantic and a subtropical ridge over northwestern Africa. A general northward motion is expected to continue through at least 36 hours, which should bring the center of Alex through the central Azores in about 30 hours or 1200 UTC 15 January. By 48 hours, Alex should start to turn more toward the northwest and west as it moves closer to the center of a larger extratropical low forecast to be south of Greenland on days 3 and 4. The new forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track through 36 hours, and lies close to the consensus model TVCA. Global and regional models, plus geostationary and microwave satellite data, indicate that Alex remains a vertically stacked low pressure system up to the 200 mb level, suggesting that the cyclone is still primarily a subtropical storm. However, water vapor imagery during the past few hours has been hinting that some weak upper-level outflow might be trying to develop. GFS and NAM model forecast soundings indicate that the current inner-core region of Alex with Lifted Indices (LI) of -2 and CAPE values of 400-500 are only expected to decrease to LI of -1 and CAPE near 300 as the cyclone nears the Azores islands in 24-30 hours. In addition, the inner-core region is forecast to remain saturated up to the 200 mb level, along with precipitable water values around 1.60 inches. This would suggest that Alex could remain as a subtropical cyclone by the time it reaches the Azores, and some slight strengthening is even possible as 300 mb temperatures are forecast to decrease from -40C to around -42C in the inner core. The official intensity has been nudged upward and is similar to a blend of the ECMWF and HRWF model intensity forecasts. Gale- and storm-force winds, as well as locally heavy rains, are likely to affect portions of the Azores beginning tonight and continuing into early Friday. Recent communications with the Azores Meteorological Office indicate that wind gusts to a least 70 kt (130 km/h) are forecast to occur across portions of the central and eastern Azores islands. However, stronger gusts will be possible at higher elevations, especially over mountain tops and ridges. Interests in the Azores should closely monitor the progress of Alex and official forecasts issued by the Azores weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 30.1N 29.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 32.4N 28.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 36.4N 27.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 42.0N 28.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/0600Z 49.1N 29.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/0600Z 60.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Subtropical Storm ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-01-14 09:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 140842 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 0900 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 43(43) 19(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) PONTA DELGADA 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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