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Subtropical Storm ALEX Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-01-14 03:44:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140243 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 0300 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALEX. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 30.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 30.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 30.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.6N 28.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.2N 27.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 39.3N 27.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 45.7N 29.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...240NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 58.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...240NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. 34 KT...420NE 360SE 540SW 420NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 30.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Subtropical Storm ALEX Graphics
2016-01-13 22:09:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Jan 2016 20:33:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Jan 2016 21:04:48 GMT
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Subtropical Storm ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-01-13 21:32:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 132032 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 Curved bands of cloudiness and showers/thunderstorms associated with the low pressure system over the eastern subtropical Atlantic have become better defined over the past 24 hours. Although the convection is not very deep, it is likely of at least moderate intensity given the relatively shallow tropospause over the area. Given the increased organization, and the apparent dissipation of nearby frontal features, advisories are being initiated at this time. The cyclone is co-located with an upper-level low, and appears to have only a weak warm core, so it is being designated as a subtropical storm. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with an earlier scatterometer overpass. A ship traversed the northern portion of the circulation earlier today and did not observe winds of tropical storm force and this is reflected in the advisory wind radii. The cyclone has been turning toward the left as it moves in the flow on the east side of a shortwave trough, and the initial motion is northeastward or 055/12 kt. The trough is expected to continue to swing counterclockwise around a broader mid-latitude cyclonic gyre, and this should result in Alex turning northward and north-northwestward over the next several days. The official forecast track follows the dynamical model consensus. Although the shear is not forecast to become very strong over the next several days, the cyclone will be moving over progressively colder waters. Therefore no increase in strength is shown for the next day or so. In the latter part of the forecast period, some strengthening is possible due to baroclinic processes. By 96 hours, the global models show the cyclone merging or becoming absorbed by another extratropical low at high latitudes. Alex is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by the time it passes near or over the Azores, so no tropical storm warnings are being issued for those islands. However, gale force winds are likely to affect portions of the Azores beginning late on Thursday or early on Friday. Alex is the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January since an unnamed system did so in 1978, and is only the fourth known to form in this month in the historical record that begins in 1851. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 27.1N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 28.9N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 32.0N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 36.3N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 42.3N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Subtropical Storm ALEX (AT1/AL012016)
2016-01-13 21:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUT OF SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Jan 13 the center of ALEX was located near 27.1, -30.8 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Subtropical Storm ALEX Public Advisory Number 1
2016-01-13 21:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 132031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016 ...OUT OF SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 30.8W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Alex. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic has developed into a subtropical storm. At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alex was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 30.8 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Alex is expected to become an extratopical cyclone before reaching the Azores on Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale force winds are expected to begin over portions of Azores by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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