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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 13
2017-09-02 16:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 021454 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 ...IRMA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AS A SMALL HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 43.3W ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 43.3 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and a turn toward the west-southwest at a slightly slower rate of speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Irma is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-02 10:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 08:56:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 09:24:41 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-02 10:50:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020850 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 Irma appears to have weakened a little during the last several hours. The eye has become cloud filled once again, and the convective pattern is not as impressive as it was yesterday. A blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial wind speed a little to 95 kt. It is interesting to note that a ship (BATFR17) passed within 50 n mi to the west of the center of Irma and has only reported winds of about 40 kt, indicating that the core of Irma is compact. The observed fluctuations in strength during the past day or so are likely to continue for about another day while Irma remains over marginally warm waters and in fairly close proximity to dry air. Eyewall replacement cycles, like the one observed yesterday, could occur, but forecasting the timing and duration of these are not possible. After 24 hours, Irma is expected to move over progressively warmer waters and into a more moist environment. These more favorable conditions combined with low to moderate wind shear should allow the hurricane to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast follows the consensus aids HCCA and IVCN, and it is fairly similar to the previous advisory. Irma is now moving due west at 12 kt. A subtropical high pressure system to the north of the hurricane is expected to strengthen and build westward during the next couple of days. This pattern should cause Irma to move west-southwestward during that time. Thereafter, a turn back to the west and then west-northwest is predicted in the 3-5 day time period when Irma moves on the south and southwest sides of the high. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there remains about 200 n mi north-south spread among the best-performing models on day 5. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south at the longer-range points, and it is about halfway between the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 19.0N 41.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.8N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 18.3N 46.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.7N 48.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 17.1N 50.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 17.0N 54.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 18.4N 59.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 21.0N 64.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2017-09-02 10:49:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 020849 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS ...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 15(33) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-09-02 10:48:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020848 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 41.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 100SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 41.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 41.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.8N 43.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.3N 46.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.7N 48.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.1N 50.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.0N 54.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 18.4N 59.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 41.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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