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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2016-10-12 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 12 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 122032 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC WED OCT 12 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BERMUDA 34 48 51(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 2 88(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) BERMUDA 64 X 72(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-12 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE STRENGTHENS AS IT TAKES AIM ON BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 12 the center of NICOLE was located near 29.2, -66.6 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 35
2016-10-12 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 122032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 ...NICOLE STRENGTHENS AS IT TAKES AIM ON BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 66.6W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 66.6 West. Nicole is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight. A northeast turn with an additional increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Nicole will pass near or over Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight or early Thursday, and Nicole is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 35
2016-10-12 22:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 122031 TCMAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC WED OCT 12 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 66.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 210SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 66.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 66.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.5N 66.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.7N 64.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.6N 57.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.8N 51.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...140NE 160SE 180SW 180NW. 34 KT...330NE 330SE 300SW 420NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 38.8N 50.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 40.0N 49.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 66.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-12 20:24:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE EYE OF NICOLE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD BERMUDA... ...CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA THIS EVENING... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Oct 12 the center of NICOLE was located near 28.8, -66.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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