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Post-Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-22 17:13:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Jul 2016 14:55:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Jul 2016 15:06:17 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 29
2016-07-22 16:50:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 221450 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Estelle has been lacking any deep convection for about 15 hours, and is now designated a post-tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak CI estimate from TAFB based on weakening rules. The cyclone should gradually spin down over the next couple of days as it moves over cool waters and dissipate in 48 to 72 hours. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 kt, and this motion should continue until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by the subtropical ridge centered well to its northeast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 21.8N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 23/0000Z 22.6N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 23.7N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 24.7N 140.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 25.8N 142.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-22 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 22 the center of ESTELLE was located near 21.8, -133.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 29
2016-07-22 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 221450 TCPEP1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 ...ESTELLE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 133.5W ABOUT 1505 MI...2425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Estelle was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 133.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Estelle. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2016-07-22 16:50:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 221450 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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