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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-22 04:51:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 21 the center of ESTELLE was located near 21.0, -130.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 27
2016-07-22 04:51:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 220250 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 ...ESTELLE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 130.9W ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 130.9 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Estelle is expected to become a tropical depression by Friday morning and a remnant low later on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 27
2016-07-22 04:50:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 220250 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0300 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 130.2W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.6N 133.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.8N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.1N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.4N 140.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 130.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-21 23:14:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2016 20:40:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2016 21:07:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-07-21 22:36:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 212036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Estelle is gradually weakening, with the convection warming west of the center during the past few hours. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Further weakening is expected as Estelle will be moving over SSTs of less than 23C with an increase in shear, which should result in Estelle losing organized deep convection and becoming post- tropical in about 24 hours, or even a little sooner. The remnant low of Estelle is expected to dissipate after 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 290/14. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central United States. Estelle should continue moving around the periphery of the ridge and turn a bit more poleward by 36 hours, and this motion should continue through dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is again adjusted to the left of the previous one following the latest trend in the guidance. The official forecast is close to the latest ECMWF and lies a bit north of the new multi-model consensus aid TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 20.7N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 21.4N 131.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 22.5N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z 23.9N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 25.4N 139.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 27.7N 143.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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