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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 25
2016-07-21 16:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 211432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.8N 130.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.9N 132.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.3N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.8N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.5N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 128.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-21 11:11:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2016 08:37:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2016 09:05:13 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-21 10:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE HEADING FOR COLD WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 21 the center of ESTELLE was located near 19.8, -126.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 24
2016-07-21 10:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 210835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 ...ESTELLE HEADING FOR COLD WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 126.9W ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 126.9 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Estelle could become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2016-07-21 10:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 21 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 210835 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC THU JUL 21 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 30N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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