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Post-Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 29
2016-07-22 16:49:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 221449 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 133.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 133.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 132.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 22.6N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 23.7N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.7N 140.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.8N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 133.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ESTELLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-22 11:14:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Jul 2016 08:40:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Jul 2016 09:07:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-07-22 10:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220836 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Estelle has been devoid of deep convection since 0000 UTC. The circulation, however, is still vigorous. Based on continuity and a recent ASCAT-B pass over the cyclone, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 35 kt. Since the cyclone is moving over increasingly cooler waters, additional weakening is forecast, and Estelle will likely degenerate into a remnant low today, and probably will dissipate during the weekend. I would not be surprised if the system generates sporadic bursts of thunderstorms during the next day or so. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this general track steered by the flow around the subtropical ridge until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.5N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.3N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 24.5N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 25.5N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-22 10:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 22 the center of ESTELLE was located near 21.5, -132.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 28
2016-07-22 10:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 220835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 ...ESTELLE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 132.0W ABOUT 1415 MI...2275 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 132.0 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Estelle is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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