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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-20 10:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2016 08:39:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2016 08:38:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2016-07-20 10:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 200838 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-20 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 the center of ESTELLE was located near 19.0, -122.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 20
2016-07-20 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 200838 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 ...ESTELLE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 122.0W ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 122.0 West. Estelle is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A motion toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected tonight through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in intensity is expected over the next day or so, although Estelle could still become a hurricane today before weakening tonight and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 20
2016-07-20 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 200838 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 122.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 122.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.4N 124.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.9N 126.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 129.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 132.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.5N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.1N 140.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 122.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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