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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 24
2016-07-21 10:34:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 210834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC THU JUL 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 126.9W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 126.9W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 126.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.4N 128.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.4N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.5N 140.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 30.5N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-21 05:11:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2016 02:32:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Jul 2016 03:05:07 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-21 04:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE GRADUALLY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 the center of ESTELLE was located near 19.5, -125.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 23
2016-07-21 04:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 210231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 ...ESTELLE GRADUALLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 125.5W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 125.5 West. Estelle is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). The storm is expected to move generally west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Estelle could become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2016-07-21 04:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 21 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 210231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0300 UTC THU JUL 21 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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