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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 23

2016-07-21 04:30:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 210230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0300 UTC THU JUL 21 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 125.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 125.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.9N 127.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.8N 130.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.0N 132.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 135.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.9N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 30.5N 142.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics

2016-07-20 23:11:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2016 20:37:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Jul 2016 21:05:07 GMT

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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2016-07-20 22:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 202036 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 2100 UTC WED JUL 20 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)

2016-07-20 22:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ESTELLE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 20 the center of ESTELLE was located near 19.4, -124.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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