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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2016-07-22 10:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 220835 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 28
2016-07-22 10:35:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 220835 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 132.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 132.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 131.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.3N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.5N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 132.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-22 05:14:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Jul 2016 02:55:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Jul 2016 03:07:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-07-22 04:52:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220252 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Convection associated with Estelle has decreased during the past several hours, and there is currently no organized convection present. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based on the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB combined with the subsequent decay of the convection. Cold water, a dry air mass, and increasing shear should cause continued weakening, with Estelle likely to decay to a remnant low sometime on Friday. The system is subsequently forecast to weaken to a trough after 72 hours. The initial motion remains 290/14 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central United States, and it is heading for a break in the ridge caused by a large deep-layer low over the northeastern Pacific. This combination should produce a general west-northwestward to northwestward motion until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is basically an update of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.6N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.8N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1200Z 24.1N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 25.4N 140.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 28.0N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2016-07-22 04:51:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 220251 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0300 UTC FRI JUL 22 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 30N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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