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Hurricane HILDA Forecast Advisory Number 9

2015-08-08 04:57:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 08 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080256 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 0300 UTC SAT AUG 08 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 139.6W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 139.6W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 139.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.4N 141.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.1N 143.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.9N 145.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.8N 147.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.8N 149.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 19.5N 151.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.6N 153.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 139.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HILDA. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP5...WMO HEADER WTPA25 PHFO...AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC...BEGINNING AT 08/0900Z. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

Hurricane HILDA Graphics

2015-08-07 22:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Aug 2015 20:52:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Aug 2015 20:51:54 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane hilda hurricane graphics

Hurricane HILDA Forecast Discussion Number 8

2015-08-07 22:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072052 TCDEP5 HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 Hilda has undergone rapid intensification during the past several hours, with a small eye forming in the middle of the central dense overcast. The initial intensity, however, is somewhat uncertain due to a large spread in the satellite estimates. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt and 65 kt, while the latest AMSU estimates from CIMSS and CIRA are 75 kt and 60 kt. In addition, there is a CIMSS Satellite consensus estimate of about 60 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt. The shear observed this morning seems to have diminished, as the outflow is increasing in the eastern semicircle. The initial motion is slightly faster at 275/13. For the next 48 hours or so, Hilda should be steered westward to west-northwestward by the deep-layer subtropical ridge to its north. After that time, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands, which should cause Hilda to turn generally northwestward. The track guidance again generally agrees on this scenario, and while the GFDL and GFDN models remain right outliers there is better overall agreement on how sharply Hilda will turn than for the previous forecast. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the west of the previous track based mostly on the current position and motion, and it lies near the consensus models and the center of the guidance envelope. It is unclear how long the current rapid intensification will last. The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows about a 30 percent chance of a 25 kt increase in strength during the next 24 hours. However, the cloud pattern of the hurricane still has a ragged appearance, and due to the small size of the system any unfavorable aspect of the environment could stop intensification. The new forecast compromises between these extremes and calls for continued strengthening at a slower rate through 36 hours. After 48-72 hours, the cyclone is expected to encounter strong southwesterly vertical shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures, and this combination should cause significant weakening. The new intensity forecast remains in best overall agreement with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 12.7N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 13.0N 139.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 13.7N 142.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 14.4N 144.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 15.2N 145.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 19.0N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 20.5N 151.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane HILDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2015-08-07 22:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072051 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 2100 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 145W 34 X 5( 5) 51(56) 23(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 21(21) 26(47) 4(51) 1(52) X(52) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20(23) 4(27) 1(28) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) 2(27) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 2(23) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Summary for Hurricane HILDA (EP5/EP102015)

2015-08-07 22:51:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HILDA QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 the center of HILDA was located near 12.7, -138.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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