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Hurricane HILDA Graphics
2015-08-08 05:08:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Aug 2015 02:59:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Aug 2015 03:04:46 GMT
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Hurricane HILDA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-08-08 04:58:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080258 TCDEP5 HURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 The hurricane continues to intensify at a rapid pace. An earlier AMSR-2 microwave overpass revealed that Hilda's inner core was extremely compact. In addition, visible and infrared geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the system's eye has become better defined, and the areal extent of cold cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye has increased over the past several hours. The current intensity estimate is raised to 90 kt, in accordance with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. There is strong upper-level outflow associated with the cyclone, particularly over the western semicircle of the circulation. Hilda's intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 to 24 hours, while vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak. In about 48 hours, the hurricane is forecast to begin encountering stronger shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near the Hawaiian Islands. Global models predict that the shear will increase greatly beyond 72 hours. Therefore a weakening trend is forecast to commence in 48 hours, with rapid weakening likely in the latter part of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The initial motion estimate is slightly north of due west, or 280/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much since the last advisory. Hilda's track should gradually bend toward the west-northwest and northwest over the next 96 hours or so, as the cyclone moves to the south of a mid-level ridge and approaches a cyclonic circulation just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. Near the end of the forecast period, the rapidly weakening system should become a more shallow circulation, and turn more toward the west within the low- to mid-tropospheric flow. The official track forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. Since Hilda will be moving into the central Pacific basin very soon, future information on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.4N 141.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 14.1N 143.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 14.9N 145.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 15.8N 147.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 17.8N 149.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 19.5N 151.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 20.6N 153.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane HILDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2015-08-08 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 08 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080257 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 0300 UTC SAT AUG 08 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X 29(29) 58(87) 4(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 15N 145W 50 X 5( 5) 55(60) 6(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 15N 145W 64 X 1( 1) 35(36) 5(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 19(32) 2(34) X(34) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 7(30) 1(31) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) 1(27) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20) 1(21) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane HILDA (EP5/EP102015)
2015-08-08 04:58:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY... ...NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 7 the center of HILDA was located near 13.0, -139.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane HILDA Public Advisory Number 9
2015-08-08 04:58:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080257 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015 ...HILDA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY... ...NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 139.6W ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 139.6 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours. A weakening trend is forecast to begin on Sunday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hilda. Future public advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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