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Summary for Tropical Storm HILDA (EP5/EP102015)

2015-08-07 04:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HILDA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 the center of HILDA was located near 12.7, -134.6 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm HILDA Public Advisory Number 5

2015-08-07 04:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070241 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 ...HILDA MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 134.6W ABOUT 1765 MI...2845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 134.6 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest and a reduction in forward speed are expected by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hilda is expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Hilda is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm HILDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2015-08-07 04:41:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070241 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 0300 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 38(58) 2(60) X(60) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 1(26) X(26) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm HILDA Forecast Advisory Number 5

2015-08-07 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070241 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 0300 UTC FRI AUG 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.6W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.6W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.7N 136.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N 138.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.7N 140.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.3N 146.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 17.8N 148.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 134.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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