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Tropical Storm HILDA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-08-06 22:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062037 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 Hilda's cloud pattern has rapidly increased in organization during the past 12 hours. Conventional satellite imagery reveals a tiny tropical cyclone with a nearly symmetric dense overcast and a prominent band over the northern half of the circulation. A 1503 UTC Windsat pass showed a closed low-level ring of convection, suggesting that the inner core of the tropical cyclone is already well established. The initial intensity estimate is raised to 50 kt in best agreement with an earlier AMSU pass. The initial motion has been due west or 270/11. Nothing has changed regarding the forecast philosophy in the previous advisory. Hilda should continue moving westward and then turn west- northwestward in about 36 hours as it nears the western periphery of a subtropical ridge to its north. The cyclone should begin to respond to a weakness in the ridge located to the east of the Hawaiian Islands and turn northwestward at a significantly reduced forward speed by 96 hours. The official track forecast has been shifted significantly to the left during the first 48 hours but still lies on the right side of the guidance envelope. The track forecast after 48 hours is also left of the previous forecast but is closer to the multi-model consensus late in the forecast period. There are no obvious obstacles to additional intensification in the short term, except for somewhat drier and more stable air mass to the north and west of the cyclone. Given Hilda's small size, it is assumed that the entrainment of this air is not likely to be an inhibitor. The SHIPS model output indicates less conducive thermodynamic variables in 2 to 3 days which should halt any further intensification. Once the cyclone gains enough latitude in the central Pacific after 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough near the longitude of Hawaii should result in weakening. In fact, the shear could be strong enough late in the period to cause a decoupling of the cyclone as depicted in global model fields. The new intensity forecast is boosted much higher in the short term to account for the current strengthening trend and is closest to the LGEM. The intensity forecast is near or below the multi-model consensus after 72 hours to emphasize the weakening expected at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 12.7N 133.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 12.6N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.7N 137.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 13.1N 139.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 13.7N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 15.5N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 17.2N 147.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm HILDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-08-06 22:37:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 2100 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 44(50) 6(56) X(56) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) 1(23) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Summary for Tropical Storm HILDA (EP5/EP102015)
2015-08-06 22:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TINY HILDA QUICKLY STRENGTHENS... ...HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 6 the center of HILDA was located near 12.7, -133.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm HILDA Public Advisory Number 4
2015-08-06 22:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015 ...TINY HILDA QUICKLY STRENGTHENS... ...HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 133.4W ABOUT 1695 MI...2725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 133.4 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through early tomorrow, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Hilda is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Hilda is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm HILDA Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-08-06 22:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062036 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015 2100 UTC THU AUG 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 133.4W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 133.4W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 132.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.6N 135.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.7N 137.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.1N 139.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.7N 141.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.5N 145.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.2N 147.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 133.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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