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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-09-06 16:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 061434 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1500 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) P ABREOJOS 34 49 3(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) LORETO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BAHIA KINO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GUAYMAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-06 16:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CORE OF INTENSE HURRICANE NORBERT GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 the center of NORBERT was located near 25.0, -114.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 17
2014-09-06 16:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 061434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 ...CORE OF INTENSE HURRICANE NORBERT GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 114.1W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA * SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE NORBERT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND....PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-06 15:09:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 11:47:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 13:08:45 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-06 13:45:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 the center of NORBERT was located near 24.8, -113.8 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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