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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)

2014-09-06 04:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORBERT EVEN STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 5 the center of NORBERT was located near 24.2, -112.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 15

2014-09-06 04:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 060239 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 ...NORBERT EVEN STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 112.8W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO * WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND NORBERT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2014-09-06 04:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060239 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) P ABREOJOS 34 25 32(57) 4(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) P ABREOJOS 50 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) LORETO 34 7 5(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 15

2014-09-06 04:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060238 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0300 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO * WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 112.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 112.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.9N 113.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 114.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.0N 117.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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