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Tropical Storm NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-07 16:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Sep 2014 14:34:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Sep 2014 14:32:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-09-07 16:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071433 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 Deep convection has been decreasing quickly during the last several hours, and only a small area of cold cloud tops remains to the south of the center. Satellite intensity estimates are falling, and the initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using an average of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. The quick weakening of Norbert is due to the influence of cool waters of around 25 C and a dry stable air mass. These factors will become even more unfavorable along the expected track of Norbert, and should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, or maybe even sooner. Once Norbert becomes a remnant low, the cyclone is expected to slowly spin down and then open into a trough in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, mainly due to the observed rate of weakening. Norbert is still moving west-northwestward, but it is expected to turn toward the northwest and then north during the next day or so when it feels the influence of a deep-layer trough west of California. A slow down and turn toward the northeast or east is expected after that time when the shallow system is steered by the low-level flow toward the Baja California peninsula. No significant change was made to the previous track forecast, and it lies close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus. Although the system is weakening quickly, tropical moisture associated with Norbert and the Pacific ITCZ will continue to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 26.0N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 26.9N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 27.9N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 29.1N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 29.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-07 16:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER COOL WATER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 7 the center of NORBERT was located near 26.0, -117.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Public Advisory Number 21
2014-09-07 16:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 071432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 ...NORBERT WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER COOL WATER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 117.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT WILL CONTINUE MOVING PARALLEL TO AND WELL OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST... AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...NORBERT OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF AROUND 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND ARE BEGINNING TO REACH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 21
2014-09-07 16:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071432 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1500 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 117.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.9N 117.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.9N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.1N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 117.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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