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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 13A
2014-09-05 19:57:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 051757 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 ...NORBERT MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WESTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 112.2W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING NORBERT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. CABO PULMO IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR REPORTED 7.61 INCHES...193 MM...OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TODAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-05 17:07:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2014 15:00:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2014 15:03:47 GMT
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-09-05 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051454 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 The cloud pattern continues to be fairly well organized with a large area of deep convection near the center and an eye feature noted in microwave data. Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have changed little and still support an initial intensity of 80 kt. Norbert is moving over an area of above normal sea surface temperatures and within an environment of low shear, so there is no reason for the cyclone to change much in intensity today. After that time, the circulation will gradually begin to move over cooler waters and into a more stable environment, resulting in a gradual weakening. Norbert's slow motion over cold water parallel to the Baja California Peninsula will tend to limit the cyclone's impact north of the current warning area. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the intensity consensus ICON. Norbert has been wobbling during the past 12 to 24 hours, but the average motion is toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this general track around the mid-level ridge over Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, the steering currents are forecast to weaken as a trough in the westerlies swings by to the north of Norbert. The cyclone should then slow down and begin to meander. There is high confidence in the first 3 days of the forecast since guidance is tightly clustered. After that time, there is less confidence due to the large spread in model tracks, but the general trend is either little motion or a slow turn toward the northeast. By then, Norbert is expected to be a weak tropical storm or a remnant low. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.2N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.1N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 25.0N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 25.8N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 28.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 29.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z 30.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-09-05 16:51:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051451 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1500 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 4 26(30) 13(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) P ABREOJOS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 10 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LORETO 34 6 7(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-05 16:51:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT DRENCHING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 5 the center of NORBERT was located near 23.2, -112.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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