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Summary for Tropical Storm NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)

2014-09-08 04:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORBERT CONTINUES SLOWLY WEAKENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TOMORROW... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 7 the center of NORBERT was located near 27.1, -117.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 23

2014-09-08 04:31:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 08 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0300 UTC MON SEP 08 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 117.9W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 117.9W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.7N 118.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.2N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm NORBERT Graphics

2014-09-07 22:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Sep 2014 20:34:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Sep 2014 20:31:47 GMT

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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 22

2014-09-07 22:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 A small patch of deep convection has been lingering just west of the center of Norbert during the last several hours. Although the cyclone is producing little deep convection, its circulation remains well established. An ASCAT pass around 1800 UTC showed maximum winds in the 40 to 45 kt range, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on that data and the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. Norbert is currently over sea surface temperatures of around 25 C and is embedded in a stable air mass, as indicated by the large field of stratocumulus clouds to the west of the storm. These unfavorable conditions should cause Norbert to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday, and open into a trough in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and follows the global model guidance. Norbert is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial motion estimate is 300/7. A turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours as the cyclone becomes influenced by a deep-layer trough to the west of California. After that time, a turn to the northeast or east toward the Baja California peninsula is predicted when the remnant low becomes steered by the weak low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this one is between the GFS and ECMWF models. Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life- threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 26.5N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 27.2N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 28.1N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 28.7N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z 29.1N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 29.5N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Tropical Storm NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)

2014-09-07 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORBERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 7 the center of NORBERT was located near 26.5, -117.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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