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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-06 19:42:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 17:42:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 15:03:47 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-06 19:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CORE OF INTENSE HURRICANE NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 11:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 6 the center of NORBERT was located near 25.1, -114.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 17A
2014-09-06 19:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 061741 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 ...CORE OF INTENSE HURRICANE NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 114.4W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA * SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. NORBERT HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H... DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND....PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-06 16:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 14:35:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 14:34:50 GMT
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-09-06 16:34:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061434 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 First visible images reveal a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep convection. Nevertheless, after a rapid intensification observed on satellite last night, objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing, and only support an initial intensity of 100 kt. A portion of the circulation is already reaching cooler waters and moving into a more stable environment. This should result in a gradual weakening during the next 24 hours, with a faster rate of weakening thereafter. Norbert is expected to become a remnant low over the cold waters just west of the northern Baja California peninsula in 3 days or so. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 7 knots. Norbert is forecast to be steered by the flow around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. In a 48 hours, the cyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude westerlies and will begin to move northward and then northeastward. By then, Norbert is forecast to be a shallow cyclone, moving little in a weak low-level flow. There is high confidence in the short- term track forecast since there is a good guidance agreement. Beyond 3 days, global models either forecast Norbert to dissipate in situ near the west coast of the northern Baja California peninsula or continue to move the system eastward as a weak low or a trough. The NHC prefers the former global model solution. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 25.0N 114.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 27.3N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 28.2N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z 30.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z 30.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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