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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2014-09-05 10:56:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050855 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 2 9(11) 24(35) 6(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 34 41 2(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) LORETO 34 4 10(14) 4(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)

2014-09-05 10:55:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORBERT CONTINUES APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Sep 5 the center of NORBERT was located near 22.5, -111.4 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 12

2014-09-05 10:55:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050855 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 ...NORBERT CONTINUES APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 111.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. A MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 61 MPH...99 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH...125 KM/H...AT AN ELEVATION OF 735 FT...224 M. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TODAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 12

2014-09-05 10:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050852 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0900 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 111.4W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 111.4W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 111.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 112.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.4N 113.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.3N 114.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.1N 115.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.5N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 111.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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