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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-09-07 04:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070234 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 The cloud pattern of Norbert has degraded significantly over the past few hours. The eye is no longer apparent, and in fact there is no deep convection north of the center where SSTs are below 26C. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity of 75 kt is based on the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate and the Dvorak estimate from SAB. Rapid weakening is expected to continue during the next 24 hours, as the cyclone will move over colder waters and into a drier and more stable environment. Norbert should then weaken more slowly to remnant low status in 2 to 3 days over the cold waters west of the northern Baja California peninsula. The new NHC intensity forecast is close the latest IVCN multi-model consensus. Norbert has jogged a bit to the left over the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of 300/07. The synoptic reasoning for the track forecast remains unchanged. Norbert will be steered around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States, which should result in a turn toward the north-northwest by 24 hours. By 48 hours, Norbert should turn northward as it moves into a break in the ridge at the base of a mid-latitude trough off the U.S. West Coast. A slow northeastward motion is shown late in the period as the shallow cyclone will be embedded in weak low-level flow. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion. The 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on data from a recent ASCAT-B pass. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 25.5N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 25.9N 116.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 26.9N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 27.9N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 28.8N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 29.7N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 30.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 19
2014-09-07 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 070232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 ...NORBERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 115.5W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... NORBERT WILL CONTINUE MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND WILL REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-07 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 the center of NORBERT was located near 25.5, -115.5 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2014-09-07 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070232 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0300 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 19
2014-09-07 04:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070232 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0300 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 115.5W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 115.5W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.9N 116.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.9N 117.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.9N 117.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 28.8N 117.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.7N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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