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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-07 01:41:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 23:41:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 21:03:48 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-07 01:40:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 6 the center of NORBERT was located near 25.3, -115.1 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 18A
2014-09-07 01:40:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062340 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 500 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 ...NORBERT WEAKENS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 115.1W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.58 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS AROUND 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND REACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-06 23:08:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 20:39:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 21:03:48 GMT
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-09-06 22:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062039 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 The eye continues to be evident on visible images, but the convection is not as deep as it was earlier. In fact, the strongest convection is limited to the southern semicircle where the ocean is still warm. Dvorak T-numbers have continued to decrease, and based on blend of these estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt. The northern portion of the circulation is already reaching cooler waters and moving into a more stable environment. This should result in steady or even rapid weakening during the next 24 hours, with a slower rate of weakening thereafter as the circulation gradually spins down. Norbert is expected to become a remnant low over the cold waters just west of the northern Baja California peninsula in 3 days or so. Norbert has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 7 knots. It is not necessary to make any significant adjustment to the previous forecast track since the global models are not showing any changes in the steering flow. As indicated earlier, Norbert is forecast to move with the flow around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. In 48 hours, the cyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude westerlies and begin to move northward and then northeastward. By then, Norbert is forecast to be a shallow cyclone and will be moving little in a weak low-level flow. The NHC forecast follows the trend indicated by the multi-model consensus. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.3N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 25.8N 115.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 26.6N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 27.5N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 28.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 30.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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