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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 16A
2014-09-06 13:45:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 061145 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 ...NORBERT MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 113.8W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA * SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NORBERT WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORBERT IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WHEN THE CENTER OF NORBERT REACHES COOLER WATERS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-06 11:07:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 08:50:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Sep 2014 09:03:47 GMT
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-09-06 10:50:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060850 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014 Norbert continued to rapidly intensify through about 06Z. Since then, the hurricane appears to have peaked in intensity, with the eye becoming less distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming asymmetric. Satellite intensity estimates at 06Z were 115 kt from TAFB and 102 kt from SAB, while the CIMMS ADT estimates peaked at 110 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt as a compromise between these estimates and the decay of the cloud pattern since 06Z. The initial motion is now 315/7. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Norbert will be steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States through 48 hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a mid-latitude trough moves into the U.S. West Coast, which should result in a weakening of the steering currents. The track guidance has come into better agreement that Norbert should move northeastward or eastward after 72 hours, with several of the models showing the remnants making landfall over the northern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The new forecast track reflects this change in the guidance by showing an northeastward and eastward drift after 72 hours. The new forecast track is a little to the right of the center of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, and after that it is slower than the consensus model TVCE. The forecast track takes Norbert over steadily decreasing sea surface temperatures. The cyclone should thus weaken through the forecast period. Despite the higher initial intensity compared to 6 hours ago, the guidance is in good agreement that Norbert should decay into a remnant low in about 3 days. The new intensity forecast is increased from that of the previous forecast through 36 hours, and then is similar to the previous forecast. The new forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 24.6N 113.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 25.2N 114.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 26.0N 115.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 26.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 27.8N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 29.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z 30.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z 30.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2014-09-06 10:50:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 060850 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) P ABREOJOS 34 45 17(62) 1(63) X(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) P ABREOJOS 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) GUAYMAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 16
2014-09-06 10:49:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 060849 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0900 UTC SAT SEP 06 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF SANTA FE ON THE WEST COAST AND SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO PUNTA EUGENIA * SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 113.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 113.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.0N 115.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.9N 116.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.8N 117.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 29.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 30.0N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 113.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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