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Tropical Storm NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2014-09-07 16:32:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 071432 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1500 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-07 11:09:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Sep 2014 08:38:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Sep 2014 09:04:48 GMT
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-09-07 10:42:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070842 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 Deep convection has continued to decrease significantly since the previous advisory, and only a small area of thunderstorms exists near the center and in the southeastern quadrant now. Due to the rapid erosion of the convection, satellite intensity estimates have sharply decreased, and the initial intensity of 65 kt is a conservative blend of the TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates. Norbert's initial motion estimate is 290/08, a little to the left of the previous advisory motion. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast track, and the forecast philosophy remains basically unchanged. During the next 72 hours, Norbert is expected to move slowly northwestward and then northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern United States. As the cyclone weakens over colder water, the low-level circulation is expected to remain behind to the west of the high mountain ranges across northern Baja California, while the mid- and upper-level circulation decouples and moves northeastward into the southwestern United States. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows the multi-model consensus TVCE. Norbert is currently located over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures, and the cyclone will be moving over even colder water and into a drier and more stable air mass during the next 72 hours. The result is that rapid weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, with Norbert becoming a non-convective remnant low to the west of the northern Baja California Peninsula in 36 hours or so. The NHC intensity forecast is close the latest IVCN multi-model consensus and follows the rapid weakening trend indicated by the SHIPS model. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 25.7N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 26.4N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 27.4N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 28.3N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0600Z 29.0N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0600Z 29.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z 29.7N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2014-09-07 10:40:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070839 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0900 UTC SUN SEP 07 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-07 10:40:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT BARELY A HURRICANE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 7 the center of NORBERT was located near 25.7, -116.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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