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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-06 01:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EYE PASSING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO... As of 5:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 5 the center of NORBERT was located near 24.0, -112.6 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 14A
2014-09-06 01:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 052347 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 500 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 ...NORBERT A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EYE PASSING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 112.6W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN EVARISTO TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA EUGENIA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY SATURDAY...WITH FASTER WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. A WEATHER STATION OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY LOCATED AT PUERTO CORTES RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53 MPH...86 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER OF NORBERT TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-05 23:08:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2014 20:41:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Sep 2014 21:03:46 GMT
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-09-05 22:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052041 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 Even though Norbert's cloud pattern remains fairly well organized in satellite imagery, cloud top temperatures in the central dense overcast have been slowly warming since this morning. Nevertheless, an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported maximum flight-level winds of 92 kt and peak SFMR winds of 76 kt in the northeastern quadrant, with a minimum pressure of 966 mb. These data support an initial intensity estimate of 80 kt for this advisory. While Norbert will be moving over above-normal SSTs of 27-29 deg C west of the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or so, some northeasterly shear and an influx of drier and more stable air over the western part of circulation should contribute to a slow weakening. After that time, Norbert should reach substantially cooler waters and other thermodynamic variables should become much less favorable. These negative factors should result in a near-rapid weakening of the cyclone in 2-3 days, and remnant low status is forecast in 3 days. Encountering even cooler waters on day 4-5 and an increase in shear, Norbert should spin down further and dissipate just beyond the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast has not changed from the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN. Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate an initial motion toward the northwest or 325/7 kt. Some re-building of the mid-level ridge to the north of Norbert should cause a slight bend of the track toward the left during the next day or two. After that time, Norbert is expected to reach the western edge of the ridge and encounter a weakness caused by a mid-latitude trough advancing eastward from offshore of the California coast. This synoptic pattern should result in a gradual northward turn during with some decrease in forward speed. The mid-level center of the cyclone is likely to move rapidly northeastward into the southwestern United States on days 3-4, leaving the low-level center meandering offshore the west- central Baja California peninsula until dissipation. The NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and lies on the far eastern side of the guidance envelope and east of the multi- model consensus TVCE. The hurricane-force wind radii have expanded in the northeastern quadrant based on SFMR data from the aircraft and now extend out 40 n mi from the center. Any deviation to the right of the forecast track would bring hurricane conditions onshore in the hurricane warning area. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 23.6N 112.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 24.3N 113.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 25.8N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 26.5N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 28.4N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z 29.2N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 29.5N 117.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2014-09-05 22:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 052041 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 2100 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 5 23(28) 11(39) X(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) P ABREOJOS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LORETO 34 6 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BAHIA KINO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUAYMAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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