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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-08 10:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 8 the center of NORBERT was located near 27.4, -118.3 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone NORBERT Public Advisory Number 24
2014-09-08 10:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 080850 TCPEP4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014 ...NORBERT BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.4N 118.3W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH ...9 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NORBERT SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY...PRODUCING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...RIP CURRENTS...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THESE SWELLS SHOULD SUBSIDE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NORBERT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2014-09-08 10:44:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 08 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 080844 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0900 UTC MON SEP 08 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-08 04:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Sep 2014 02:34:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Sep 2014 02:32:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 23
2014-09-08 04:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080233 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 Norbert has been producing little or no deep convection over the past several hours. Unless new thunderstorm activity develops in the circulation, Norbert will likely be downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone soon. Based on a slow spin down of the maximum winds analyzed from the ASCAT overpass from earlier today, the current intensity is set at 40 kt. Since the system has a substantial circulation, it should take a couple of days to dissipate. The official wind speed forecast is similar to the previous one, and anticipates that the system will be very weak by the time it nears the north-central Baja California peninsula. The cyclone's heading is gradually turning to the right, and the initial motion is now 320/6. A mid-level trough near California should cause Norbert, or the remnant low, to turn toward the north and northeast during the next couple of days. By 48-72 hours, the weak cyclone will likely move slowly east-northeastward within the low-level flow. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and essentially splits the difference between the latest GFS and ECMWF forecast tracks. Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life- threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.1N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 27.7N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1200Z 29.0N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0000Z 29.2N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z 29.5N 115.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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