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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-09-05 04:40:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050240 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 0300 UTC FRI SEP 05 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 2 3( 5) 19(24) 10(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN JOSE CABO 34 34 2(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) LA PAZ 34 40 7(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) LORETO 34 3 8(11) 7(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-05 04:39:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AS NORBERT MOVES CLOSER... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 4 the center of NORBERT was located near 22.0, -111.1 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-05 01:47:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2014 23:47:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2014 21:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
2014-09-05 01:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 4 the center of NORBERT was located near 21.6, -111.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 10A
2014-09-05 01:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 042346 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 500 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 111.0W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTER PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA VERY SOON...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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