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Hurricane NORBERT Public Advisory Number 9A
2014-09-04 19:56:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 041756 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE NORBERT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1100 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND NORBERT A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 110.6W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane NORBERT Graphics
2014-09-04 17:08:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2014 14:53:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Sep 2014 15:03:46 GMT
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-09-04 16:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041453 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014 Norbert has become a little better organized overnight, with the TRMM and AMSR2 microwave sensors indicating that the low- and mid-level centers have become more vertically aligned. The cyclone is still experiencing northeasterly shear though, given the asymmetric shape on the latest satellite images. Dvorak intensity estimates are all near 75 kt, so that will used as the initial wind speed. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Norbert, and should provide a more precise estimate of its intensity. While moderate shear has been affecting the cyclone, it has not been strong enough to prevent slow strengthening. Although the shear is not forecast to change much over the next few days, Norbert is expected to move into an environment characterized by cooler SSTs and drier, more stable air. These negative factors should cause some weakening on Friday, with a more significant downward trend anticipated by late this weekend. The latest NHC forecast is close to a blend of the previous interpolated forecast and the intensity consensus. Norbert should become a remnant low in about 4 days due to it moving over very cool waters west of Baja California. The track of Norbert has been quite erratic over the past 24 hours, but a 12-hour motion still appears to be northwestward at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain over northwestern Mexico, keeping Norbert on the same general course during the next few days, offshore of Baja California. At long range, model guidance remains divergent on how much of a northward turn that Norbert will take due to a mid-latitude trough weakening the ridge. The 3-5 day track also partially depends on the intensity at that time range, with a deeper system probably moving farther west, more like the ECMWF solution. Since there has not been much change to the overall guidance, the new NHC forecast is about the same as the previous one, and remains relatively close to the dynamical model consensus. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 20.7N 110.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 21.5N 111.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 22.5N 112.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 23.5N 113.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 24.3N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 25.9N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z 29.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2014-09-04 16:52:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 041452 PWSEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 27 11(38) 2(40) 1(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 12 12(24) 2(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) LA PAZ 34 3 13(16) 7(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) LORETO 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 9
2014-09-04 16:52:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 041452 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1500 UTC THU SEP 04 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA PAZ TO CABO SAN LAZARO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 110.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 110.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.5N 111.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.5N 113.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.3N 114.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.9N 117.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 29.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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